Saul Howard

Against prediction

Everybody wants someone to tell them what's going to happen. But whatever consciousness is, it's fundamentally unpredictable. As long as you're in the human domain, telling the future is out.

There's a story Drama Theorists use to illustrate this. A husband and wife are playing chess. The husband makes a move, "checkmate". The wife objects, wait, there must be something I can do. No, says the husband, it's checkmate -- there are no possible moves. The wife reaches out and smashes the board into the air, pieces flying, "how about this for a move?".

Okay, so life isn't a game, there aren't rules. So what then? If analysis isn't predictive, what is it? Analysis is the art of understanding the present moment as fully as possible. Choosing models for compressing reality to aid decision making. The actions that make up the future will come from unpredictable human creativity. A wider understanding of the present moment gives our creativity the best grounding from which to imagine the future.

AI can't predict the future, but it can help us model the present.